Public comment is open now
The Census Bureau has proposed major changes to the rules governing the 2030 Census, and the public has until October 13, 2026 to respond. Because the comment period is brief, people and organizations that depend on accurate census data should review the proposal now.
The proposal raises four connected concerns. It would change which residents count toward congressional representation, create new risks for census participation, remove race and ethnicity questions from the decennial form and adopt a contested interpretation of the Fourteenth Amendment. Each change could shape political representation and public data for the following decade, which makes the public-comment process especially important.
Changing who counts changes representation
The census currently counts people where they usually live, regardless of citizenship or immigration status. Including noncitizens does not give them voting rights. It reflects the number of people who live under a government’s authority, are represented by its elected officials and rely on its public institutions.
The proposed rule would count only U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents toward congressional apportionment. Other foreign citizens would be excluded, including undocumented residents and many people who are lawfully present without green cards.
That change has political consequences because state population totals determine how the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are distributed, as well as each state’s number of Electoral College votes. Changing who is included in those totals can redistribute representation even before district boundaries are drawn.
A Pew Research Center analysis estimated that excluding unauthorized immigrants from projected 2020 totals could have shifted six House seats among six states. The analysis does not predict what will happen in 2030, and the actual distribution will depend on future population totals. It does, however, demonstrate how changing the apportionment population can move political power from one state to another. The current proposal is broader because it reaches beyond undocumented residents.
This is different from conventional gerrymandering, which involves drawing district boundaries. The connection is that both can affect representation. This proposal would do so by changing the population base used before the maps are drawn.
Fear can suppress participation
Federal law currently provides strong protections for census responses. Title 13 prohibits the Census Bureau from giving identifiable responses to immigration-enforcement agencies or using them for law-enforcement purposes.
Those protections matter, but they do not necessarily eliminate the fear that census participation could expose an individual or family member to immigration consequences. The proposal contemplates using records from the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies to classify residents by legal status. It also asks for public comment on whether to add a legal-status question to the census form.
For people in mixed-status households, the separation between statistical data collection and immigration enforcement may not feel secure. Some may avoid the census, leave family members off the form or provide incomplete information.
Census Bureau studies have produced mixed findings about the overall effect of a citizenship question. A 2019 randomized test found no statistically significant difference in overall self-response, although it identified lower response among some groups and in some areas. More recent Census Bureau research found that sensitivity varied significantly among households and that response fell most among households containing noncitizens who were ineligible for Social Security numbers.
This risk matters because an undercount would affect citizens and noncitizens alike. Census totals support population estimates, public-funding decisions, schools, hospitals, transportation, emergency planning and research. If fear causes particular populations to be missed, the resulting errors can influence public decisions for ten years.
Removing race and ethnicity questions would hide disparities
The proposal would prohibit race and ethnicity questions on the decennial census form. This change deserves its own discussion because it would affect how the country identifies and measures differences among communities.
The American Community Survey could continue collecting race and ethnicity information, but it is based on a sample rather than a complete count. Its estimates become less precise for smaller populations and geographic areas, while administrative records are not an equivalent replacement for direct self-identification.
Race and ethnicity data make it possible to disaggregate population totals. Without that detail, an overall number may appear reasonable while concealing substantial differences among the populations included within it.
I have seen this repeatedly in my work and have written before about why disaggregation is essential to understanding what works. Aggregate data can make a program appear effective while obscuring who benefited, who did not and why. When information is no longer available by race or ethnicity, disparities can disappear from the analysis even though they remain present in people’s lives.
Disaggregated census data support voting-rights enforcement, fair-housing work, public-health analysis, resource allocation and efforts to determine which populations were missed by the count. Removing race and ethnicity questions from the complete census would weaken a basic source of evidence used to understand unequal representation and outcomes.
The Fourteenth Amendment says persons
The constitutional question is direct. Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment requires representatives to be apportioned according to the “whole number of persons in each State.” The text does not say citizens, voters or lawful permanent residents.
The administration argues that some immigrants lack the allegiance or durable connection needed to qualify as usual residents. Under that interpretation, citizenship or permanent legal status can help determine whether someone should be included in the apportionment population.
The opposing interpretation emphasizes the amendment’s use of the word “persons,” along with the long history of including resident noncitizens in the apportionment count. From this perspective, immigration status is distinct from the question of whether someone actually lives in a state.
The resulting legal question is whether the executive branch can narrow the population included under the phrase “whole number of persons” by changing its definition of usual residence. Courts may ultimately address that question, but uncertainty surrounding the rule could affect public trust and census participation before litigation is resolved.
Submit a public comment
Public comments are due October 13, 2026.
A comment does not need to be long or written by a lawyer. It can explain which parts of the proposal concern you, why accurate and disaggregated census data matter to your community or work and what you want the Census Bureau to do.
Comments may ask the Bureau to:
Continue counting residents based on where they usually live, regardless of immigration status.
Preserve race and ethnicity questions on the decennial census.
Decline to add a citizenship or legal-status question.
Publish evidence about the accuracy and limitations of the administrative records it plans to use.
Extend the public-comment period and conduct broader consultation.
Submit a comment through Regulations.gov.
These changes are still proposals. Public comment is the opportunity to tell the Census Bureau, on the record, who should be included in the count and which information the country needs to preserve.
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